2012年9月14日星期五

The Ferringo NFL Report - Bet With Caution Week 1

Eli Manning Women S Jersey, \"I have a notion that gamblers are as happy as most people, being always excited; women, wine, fame, the table, even ambition, sate now and then, but every turn of the card and cast of the dice keeps the gambler alive.\"

- Lord Byron

The starting lineups have been set. The fantasy football teams have been drafted. The money has found its way back into the offshore gaming accounts, and the Week 1 lines are posted and ripe for the picking. The sporting public has been going through rehab and withdrawal for seven months since the Super Bowl, but it is about to again submerge itself in a wonderful orgy of drinking, violence, and gambling that will last the next 21 weeks.

The season kicks off Thursday night when the Oakland Raiders travel to New England to take on the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots. That evening will feature the type of showmanship, self-importance, and spectacle that we\'ve come to expect from Commissioner Paul Tagliabue and his massive public relations machine.

But don\'t be distracted. We have work to do this season - making all of us some money by finding and exploiting the weaknesses in the bookmaking industry. No matter who you go through - an online sports book, that fifth-year sophomore in the dorm next to yours or even that Eli Manning Women S Jersey office picks pool that gets up to one or two hundred dollars - Doc\'s Sports is the place for you to find the exclusive information that can be the difference between picking up that new surround sound system for your living room or having to pawn that watch that Mom bought you last Christmas.

Looking at the lines for opening weekend, it\'s apparent that the books are just as skittish as Eli Manning Women S Jersey the rest of us when it comes to predicting the performance of most NFL teams. Most of the lines are chalk, with the favorites from the end of last season listed as the favorites now. There are no real big numbers (minus 8 in the New England game was the largest). I\'m going to take it slow this weekend, sitting back and enjoying the blissful beginning Eli Manning Women S Jersey to another fall football season. If you decide to throw around a few bills, here are a few things to remember for Week 1:

1) Forget about last year. That\'s worth repeating. FORGET ABOUT LAST YEAR! All of the preseason hype, predictions and the opening week lines are based around how teams performed last year. That\'s the point of origin and any adjustments to that are based on limited conjecture. Remember, part of the formula for determining a line is the public\'s perception about teams. People will form their opinions based on their most recent recollection of these clubs (last year\'s playoffs). The same 12 teams that made the postseason last year aren\'t going to make it this season. Conversely, at least one team that had 4,5, or 6 wins last year is going to be playing in the second week of January. It happens every year, so don\'t try to fight it.

2) Bet conservatively in Week 1. I know you\'re excited. We all are. But you don\'t want to put yourself in a hole early because you\'ll be playing from behind the whole season. Be patient. Make a few small bets - maybe half the size of what you would wager during the season - and keep a list of bets that you would have made. After the weekend, check your list of bets against what actually happens. If you would have done well, then you have a good read on the teams and are set for Week 2. If not, keep the same conservative approach.

3)Pay attention to the injury report. This is always important, but you\'d be amazed how many people assume that in Week 1 all the players are healthy and ready to go. That couldn\'t be less true. Pulled hamstrings, lingering soreness and other ailments to key players will have just as big an impact in the opening games as they would later in the year. A perfect example is the Tennessee at Pittsburgh (minus 7) game this weekend. Pittsburgh is the better team, but they\'re without Duce Staley, Jerome Bettis, and Joey Porter. On the flip side, the Titans roster is littered with talented but injury-prone guys (Kris Brown, Steve McNair, and Tyrone Calico) who are 100 percent at the moment, but probably won\'t be for the whole year. The result is a slightly different competition level this weekend than it would be if the game were played in November.

4)Special teams can win games early. For whatever reason, it takes a few weeks for most organizations to get their special teams in order. Don\'t be surprised to see more big plays than usual in the first few weeks. This also yields an extra advantage to squads with good special teams. Some clubs with the best: Buffalo, Atlanta, Detroit, Chicago and Denver. Some with the worst: St. Louis, Oakland, Tampa Bay and Seattle.